The Canadian Mortgage & Housing Corporation (CMHC), the Canadian
national housing agency commissioned a study a couple of years ago,
which has recently been completed by law firm Gowlings Lafleur Henderson
LLP. The CMHC reiterates at the beginning of the report that "CMHC
Insurance business has no plans to insure Shari'a mortgages, nor is CMHC
making changes to legislation or administrative practices". The
prominence of this disclosure is probably, at least in part, a reaction
to the small but loud reaction from critics of Islamic finance when the
study was announced.
The study describes how Islamic finance
works and in particular how Islamic mortgages work. The report provides
one of the most comprehensive and detailed overviews of the Islamic
mortgage markets in a number of countries including Western secular
democracies, secular republics with Muslim majorities and Islamic
republics.
The most interesting section of the report, of
course, is the focus on Canada. This section, however, begins with an
interesting observations:
"Little empirical evidence based on
a sound methodology assumptions exists to accurately project what
portion of the Canadian population would be interested in [using]
Shari'a-compliant financing"
This point is relevant beyond
just the narrow focus of the Canadian report because there is little
evidence about what factors--either within Muslim populations or within
the Islamic finance industry--lead to demand for Shari'ah-compliant
financial products. This is clearly a much larger issue than I can
cover in this short blog post, but it suggests a promising area for
research about what issues in Islamic finance matter for Muslim
consumers of financial products.
Returning to the Canadian
market, the market structure of the market has limited the ability to
provide Shari'ah-compliant home financing to those Muslims who demand
them. The market has for most of the past 25 years, been dominated by
small cooperatives reliant upon member's investments to finance new home
purchases. UM Financial entered the market in 2005 and used mudaraba
financing from Credit Union Central of Ontario for $120 million, which
has been used to finance home purchases and refinancing. Until UM
receives addition financing, which it has reportedly been working on, it
is limited in the financing it can provide. As the CMHC report notes,
of the Canadian banks and other mainstream financing institutions, which
represent 60% of the mortgage market, "none of them have actually
offered Shari'a-compliant housing finance, not even on a pilot-project
basis".
Whether these banks enter the market on their own or
through specialized Islamic home finance companies, there will continue
to be a limit on the availability of Islamic home finance in Canada.
This problem is accentuated by the lack of certain numbers on the size
of the market in Canada. While there are expected to be between 0.98
million to 1.30 million Muslims in Canada by 2011 and between 1.23
million and 1.78 million Muslims by 2017 according to Statistics Canada,
there is no clear estimate about how many of these will be homebuyers
and of those buyers how many will opt for Shari'ah-compliant mortgages
over conventional alternatives.
The study does cite one
statistic that probably impacts the rate of Muslims who choose Islamic
mortgages rather than conventional alternatives. They cite a story in
the
Financial Post from May 2007
which said that Shari'ah-compliant mortgages are between 100 and 300
basis points more expensive than conventional mortgages (versus a
similar spread of 40 to 100 basis points in the United States).
Whatever a study of Muslims in Canada would say if one were conducted,
the cost of the mortgage will make the difference between whether the
indifferent consumer will choose one over the other. Muslims are often
subdivided into three groups (not necessarily of equal size): those that
only use Islamic finance, those that would prefer Islamic finance if
the cost is equivalent (or close) and those who will not use Islamic
finance. The middle group will be the group that determines the size of
the market in Canada for Islamic finance.
In Canada this is likely to be assumed by one or more
of the big five banks. This study could provide the foundation for
Islamic finance products to be placed on equal footing in tax and
regulatory treatment to conventional mortgages through changes in laws.
It has also been reported that there are several Islamic bank
applications that have been held up pending the completion of this
report. Their approval would add to the pressure for the Canadian
government to reform tax and regulatory laws (probably in line with
changes made in the past decade in the UK).
The broader points
that this report raises is that Islamic finance (particularly retail
Islamic finance) is limited if:
- it is not competitive in price with
conventional alternatives;
- regulatory uncertainty; and,
- significant uncertainty over the size and characteristics of demand for
Islamic finance.
These limitations can be reduced if:
- Islamic financial institutions have greater access to capital;
- regulatory and tax restrictions that add cost are removed to put Islamic
finance on equal footing with conventional finance; and
- the factors
that determine whether the marginal Muslim financial consumer will opt
for Islamic or conventional finance is better understood.